News / Economic Growth
Bristol’s economy set to fall from UK top 10
Nearly 10,000 new jobs are expected to be created in Bristol by the end of 2023 despite an economic slowdown, according to a new report.
The UK Powerhouse Study predicts a decrease in the city’s gross value added (GVA) growth in the next year that will see it fall from the UK’s top ten – from eighth place at the end of last year to 18th out of the 50 cities included in the analysis.
Despite a slowdown in the pace of growth, researchers anticipate Bristol’s economy will still expand by £500m to a total value of £14.7billion by the end of 2023, with a year-on-year GVA growth of two per cent expected.
This has dropped from the annual increase of 6.9 per cent witnessed in the fourth quarter of last year.
The study, produced by law firm Irwin Mitchell and the Centre for Economics & Business Research, highlights improvements in job creation in the city with a predicted annual growth in employment levels of 1.2 per cent at the end of next year.
This equates to 9,700 more new positions and represents an improvement on the final quarter of 2021, when employment growth levels were flatlining.
The report analyses 50 of the largest local economies by employment and GVA growth. Its findings predict the fastest growth will be concentrated in the south of the country, with places such as Milton Keynes, Southampton, Oxford and Cambridge all among the top performers.
Foreign direct investment levels were also analysed, with report authors saying the dominance of London and the South East in this area contributes to the continued contrast in economic outcomes compared to the rest of the UK.
London, for example, saw 492 foreign direct investment projects in 2020/21 while there were just 76 in the entire South West region.
Commenting on the findings, Josie Dent, managing economist at Cebr and one of the report’s authors, said: “The economy is still expected to face some turbulence between now and the end of next year, notably through volatility in commodity prices, supply chain pressures, and the emerging cost-of-living crisis domestically. All of these factors are set to impact growth both at the aggregate level and, to a varying extent, within individual cities.
“This report highlights that much of the fastest growth during next year will be concentrated in the south. Locations such as Milton Keyes, Cambridge and Oxford have economies which are dominated by fast-growth sectors and they have also been hot spots for overseas investment. If economic levelling up is to be tackled effectively, these two issues must be recognised and quickly addressed.”
Main photo: Josh Rundle
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