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Accounts of extreme weather events that hit Bristol 400 years ago discovered
Historians at the University of Bristol have uncovered accounts of extreme weather-related events that occurred in the city between the 1560s and 1620s.
From devastating floods to weather so cold that rivers froze for months, the accounts come from a chronicle acquired by Bristol Archives in 1932 but hasn’t been accessed until now due to its fragility.
But, using digital photography, the historians have been able to transcribe the document and discover the strange phenomena to take place at the turn of the 17th century.
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The chronicle entries, which seem to be written by a weather enthusiast, describe how Bristol and its wider region was affected by what is known as the Little Ice Age and Grindelwald Fluctuation.
The Little Ice Age saw huge volcanic eruptions in the Americas pushing dust and gases high into the atmosphere, blocking out the sun, from the 1300s to 1800s.
The related cooling phase is known as the Grindelwald Fluctuation and took place between 1560 and 1630, which is when the discovered chronicle documents the strange weather in Bristol.
Crop failures, famines, great freezes, floods, unseasonal blizzards, tempests and droughts all feature in the accounts.
The fragile chronicle documenting the 1564 freeze and plague. Photo The British Library
Working with an environmental scientist from University College London (UCL), the team at the University of Bristol found detailed accounts in the chronicle’s entries.
In 1596 a famine occurred Bristol and further afield, in 1603 masses on snow fell on October 4 and, from 1607 to 1608, a frost that froze the Severn and Wye lasted from November to February. The writer of the chronicle adds: “People did pass on foot from side unto the other and played gambols and made fires to roast meat upon the ice.”
In the same year, 1607, Bristol also saw a “Great Flood” and the height of the water can still be seen on flood markers in churches around the estuary.
The chronicle states that in Bristol “all the lower part were drowned about four or five foot” while the flood “came so fast and high at Henbury that the waters continued a long time a fathom deep that the people were obliged to abide on the trees two or three days”.
A pamphlet illustrating the Great Flood in the Bristol Channel. Image: The British Library
The plaque in Kingston Seymour, one of the churches flooded in Jan 1607. The plaque says 1606 because the start of the year was normally taken to be March 25 in this period. Photo: The British Library
But the strange weather of the 1500s and 1600s were not caused by climate change in the same way as it is today.
“The Little Ice Age was the coldest period since the start of the Holocene (almost 12,000 years ago),” says Professor Anson Mackay from UCL.
“The cooling period from 1300-1800 was a time of global climatic change, but one that was very different to modern global warming.
“Back then, volcanic eruptions and changes in the world’s ocean circulation all played a role. Today, increases in greenhouse gases are the driving force behind global warming.”
What these colourful accounts suggest is that the Grindelwald Fluctuation did not just make the world cold but its disturbance of the global climate led to more catastrophic weather events.
“Modern climate change isn’t just making the world warmer, it is also causing more severe weather, which will only get worse,” says Professor Mackay, noting that the study of the chronicle holds lessons for the 21st century.
“Current modelling suggests that weather-related fatalities in Europe could increase 50-fold in the coming decades.
“If this proves correct, the news headlines of the future could be as bleak as those of the 17th century.”
Main photo: Lowie Trevena
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