News / Politics
Bristol to elect Green MP, polling experts predict
Polling experts are predicting that Bristol will elect the UK’s second ever Green MP in the next general election.
According to Electoral Calculus, the Green Party has a 69 per cent probability of a win in the new Bristol Central seat, which will largely replace the existing Bristol West constituency.
It predicts that Carla Denyer – MP candidate for Bristol Central and co-leader of the Green Party – will receive 46 per cent of the vote share, leading to a Green majority of almost 4,000 votes.
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The Labour candidate is predicted to gain 39 per cent of the vote share, leaving the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats six per cent and four per cent respectively.
Commenting on the prediction, Denyer said: “We will take nothing for granted, but this prediction that Bristol will have its first Green Party MP after the next general election mirrors what we are sensing on the ground.
“We know from talking to people on the doorstep that many in Bristol Central are uninspired by Labour and are turning to the Greens because they know we stand for real action on the climate crisis and have the policies to create a fairer, more equal society.
“They also know Green MPs will hold a future government to account.”
The Bristol West seat, which Bristol Central will replace, is currently held by Labour MP Thangam Debbonaire – photo: Parliament Live TV
The Bristol West constituency will be made up of the Ashley, Central, Clifton, Clifton Down, Cotham, Hotwells & Harbourside and Redland wards, which currently fall under Bristol West.
Carla Denyer, who is also a councillor for Clifton Down, is one of 12 Green Party councillors representing the wards within the new seat. Labour has just two councillors.
Bristol West is currently represented by Labour MP and shadow leader of the house of commons, Thangam Debbonaire, who won the seat with a majority of 37 per cent in 2019.
Green Party candidates have come second to Debboniare in the last three elections. Denyer, who also ran in 2019, received 25 per cent of the vote share against Debbonaire’s 62 per cent in 2019.
Read next:
- Greens battling to remain Bristol’s largest party in by-election
- By-election to take place as Bristol’s youngest councillor resigns
- 10 Questions: Carla Denyer – ‘We need to make sure that the majority of our trees are protected’
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