‘2016: a big year for Bristol politics’

The Bristol public will return to the polls in May 2016 to choose their next mayor, and this time all of the councillors will be standing for election. With every ward up for grabs and a close-run mayoral race, Bristol must brace itself for the potential of wholesale change. 2016 is crunch time for Bristol, so perhaps it’s time to look at what the results might mean for the city, and for the country as a whole.

The first mayoral elections back in November 2012 were a tight affair, with only the transfer vote separating George Ferguson from the Labour candidate, Marvin Rees. Four years on, George is seeking his second and final term in office, while Rees looks to oust him and signal a triumphant victory for Labour.

The four main parties have selected their candidates, and all four represent a very different direction for the city. Charles Lucas will stand for the Conservatives, a councillor in Clifton and director of a property company.

Dr Kay Barnard was unveiled by Tim Farron as the Liberal Democrat’s candidate earlier this year, having stood unsuccessfully as an MEP in 2009 and 2014. With her party having the lowest representation in the council of the four main parties, she is not expected to win.

It will be interesting to see how Tony Dyer of the Green Party fares in May. The Green Party membership has increased significantly in Bristol over recent years and Tony came fourth in the Bristol South constituency in the General Election.

But he will find himself up against it again, what with the green ambitions of incumbent mayor George Ferguson. However, since George became mayor, the Greens have added a further twelve councillors to their ranks in the council, making this a ‘contest within a contest’.

As the May 2015 General Election revealed, Bristol is the last bastion of hope for the left in the South West, in an otherwise deep, and very Blue sea.

It is critical for Jeremy Corbyn and his party that Marvin Rees wins the election in May, or Corbyn’s leadership will be put under even further scrutiny.

If Labour is unsuccessful in an area of the country that returned three of a possible four MPs, then how can they possibly be successful in other parts with lower support?

However, should Marvin Rees win, Bristol will take on a distinctly left wing outlook, and will provide a strong example of Labour’s recovery and encourage other supporters nationwide.

Unlike the council elections of 2012, the whole city council is to be re-elected. The result will serve as a snapshot for current public opinion. The Greens have had great success over the last three years and will hope to continue their expansion at the local level. But they must ensure they do not get caught in two minds as to where their priorities lie; with gaining council seats or with the council mayoralty.

2016 will be a big year for Bristol. There are some big decisions to make and (possibly) some big changes to follow.

Alex Watson is a senior consultant at Clifton-based community and public affairs specialists TFA, and is writing in his capacity as a political analyst.

Read more about the 2016 Bristol mayor candidates here.