Bristol metro: pipe dream or realistic rail plan?

At the time of writing this piece, many people have become particularly animated over the mayor’s proposal for the city to have its very own rudimentary subway system, all within 10 years.

No one can fault the ambition here. We are often told that Bristol is a place where nothing gets built – as illustrated most recently with doubts over delivery of the promised indoor arena.

Indeed, it is said that if Isambard Kingdom Brunel were alive today, he would never get permission to construct a bridge over the Avon Gorge.

‘Brunel wouldn’t have got permission to build The Clifton Suspension Bridge today’

Ironically, Brunel worked with his father, Marc, to create the world’s first foot tunnel under the Thames (1843) before it was sold to the railway and converted for carriages in 1865.  This is relevant because various obstacles – accidents, delays and financial problems – almost scuppered that scheme at various stages of its construction.

Today, a new two-mile tunnel beneath the Thames has just been given the go-ahead with the hefty price tag of £4billion. Of course, it will be the cost which will ultimately determine the fate of the mayor’s metro.

Provisional plans for his underground first surfaced in the summer as part of the region’s draft Joint Transport Study. This envisages three lines running into the city from the north, east and southern boundaries.

The initial figure for this basic network of £2.5bn has already grown to £4.5bn and one can expect this to at least double over the years ahead.

A geological survey has apparently established that tunnelling along large parts of the proposed routes is feasible, but as information around this study has not been shared by the Labour administration, we are expected to just accept this conclusion as read.

Now, Marvin Rees wants the West of England Partnership to agree to pay £3m for the next stage of development work, including the financially modelling necessary to ultimately decide its viability.

Details of the mayor’s recent trip to China and Malaysia have also not been forthcoming so we have no idea whether this was successful or not in attracting interest from private investors and venture capital.

Here, one would infer that he must have received some positive indications, otherwise his willingness to publicly go out on a limb on this issue (especially giving such a short timescale) is inexplicable.

Most of the responses I’ve read express understandable scepticism. Some have likened this proposal to a belief in unicorns (like those atop City Hall) or as a simple pipe dream.

Is an underground for Bristol an achievable ambition?

In order to evaluate Marvin’s claims, we need to see the basis for his optimism. Actual delivery of an underground rail would be a marvellous achievement, but before supporting such an endeavour, how is this colossal cost to be met?

Other questions I would like answered include: What did the geological survey actually say? What is the advice of our own transport planners? How is the estimated cost figure arrived at?  Who (if anyone) is interested in backing this plan?  What terms and rate of return will they be expecting for this precarious proposition?

I am afraid that until we know much more about this incomplete plan, one is forced to conclude that a better approach would be to invest in our surface railway.

Think of what could be achieved at a fraction of this price. If there is money to invest, let’s complete MetroWest phase two and accelerate phase three.  I want lost lines reopened, the full Henbury Loop realised, and new stations built at Ashton Gate, St Anne’s and Horfield.

Marvin is right to think big, but he also has to remain rooted in reality. At the moment, all we have to go on is a mountain of ambition and a few carefully drawn lines on a map.

Sadly, if his recently declared 100 achievements in office is anything to go by, when compared with the mayoral manifesto, Labour is in danger of once again over-promising and under-delivering on its political programme.

Mark Weston is leader of the Conservative group of councillors in Bristol and a councillor for Henbury and Brentry.

Read more: Could Bristol have an underground system within 10 years?