‘Ferguson must watch out for Greens’

Green campaigner Simon Stafford-Townsend explains why he thinks George Ferguson should be worried about the rising popularity of his party, despite Darren Hall’s recent announcement.

When the Bristol Post broke the news that Darren Hall was endorsing George Ferguson for Mayor, I and many other Greens were hurt and dismayed. Happily, Darren has now clarified his position in a letter to the Post, correcting their misrepresentation of his voting intentions. I am grateful to Darren for clearing this up.

Indeed, Darren is moving to North Somerset, so can’t vote in the Mayoral election next year. However, he is clear: if he was able to vote, he would vote Green first, and George Ferguson second. As Bristol 24/7 have previously pointed out, that Green candidate is highly likely to be Tony Dyer, who was our prospective parliamentary candidate for Bristol South back in May.

The turn of events with Daren Hall deserves a little analysis, because it demonstrates something about the state of George’s re-election prospects and the emergence of Bristol Green Party as a significant force in Bristol politics.

Darren Hall’s “endorsement” would not have been newsworthy had the Green Party not come close to winning Bristol West back in May, instead pulling off one of the biggest swings in English electoral history and finishing second.

As Tessa Coombes has argued, Bristol looks set to be a three way fight between George Ferguson, Labour, and the Greens. And in a supplementary vote system where second preferences are only considered for the top two candidates, getting into the top two AND appealing to others’ second preferences is key.

George Ferguson is incredibly vulnerable here. He was elected on an appallingly low turnout of 27.92 per cent that maximised the high turnout among his intensely localised support.

In a citywide local election, he lacks the party machinery to effectively campaign against the Greens and Labour, who will both additionally be fielding Council candidates. George Ferguson’s vote of 37,353 across the whole city doesn’t stack up well against the 36,504 Green votes in just the 1/3 of Council seats that were up for election in May.

It has become clear in the past few days that George’s media team, as well as elements within Labour, are trying to undermine the Green vote. This is predictable, and I have told Tony that he should take it as a compliment. Both Labour and George will be wanting Greens to come third because Green second preferences are likely to split between Labour and George, and could decide which of them becomes Mayor if they finish in the top two.

In my view, Darren is naive to think that George Ferguson deserves the second preferences of Green voters. After all, Darren stood for the Greens in the first place after George put decisions about Green Capital into the hands of a private company (his famous “fuck it, I’m going into politics” moment).

George will find it hard to argue his green credentials considering his complete inaction over the destruction of Blue Finger land at Stapleton allotments to make way for Metrobus.

The loss of rare, highest grade soil, during the European Year of Soil has made a mockery of Bristol’s European Green Capital status. Likewise, he has implemented austerity through Ccouncil cuts with not so much as a shrug, which will hurt him among the high proportion of Green supporters who are strongly anti-austerity.

That said, whether George turns out to be the least worst second preference for Greens will largely depend on whether Marvin Rees’ Labour can show that they understand green issues as an integral part of social justice, rather than as a bolt-on to win Green votes. I will reserve final judgement until the manifestos are out.

More importantly though, George hasn’t done anything to particularly warrant a second term of office, and the novelty value of electing an independent is wearing thin.

Independents for Bristol, who have close links with George, failed to make much of a breakthrough and have been in constant decline, racking up a heady 608 votes across the three council seats they managed to contest in May.

Whilst Party politics often has a murky side, it also allows local politics to join up to national politics in a way that independents can never manage. Most of George’s achievements have come as a result of the amount of power the mayor’s office holds rather than any kind of political acumen on the part of George himself.

Meanwhile, the Green Party has grown from just two councillors when George was elected, to 14 Councillors as of now, overtaking the Lib Dems as third biggest group on council; only two seats behind the Tories. With the extra seats we’re expecting to pick up in 2016, the Green councillor group is likely to emerge as the second biggest on Council, with a decent chance of overtaking Labour as biggest.

Labour, on the other hand, are still in disarray following the bitter struggle of their leadership contest. Corbyn has emerged victorious, but you will find very few Corbyn supporters among Bristol’s Labour councillors – and none among the MPs. Marvin Rees has done everything he can to avoid answering questions on Corbyn, having himself supported Andy Burnham.

In comparison, the Greens can point to a dramatic surge in support that gives us the momentum to enter the mayoral race with ambition and confidence. We took Council seats from both Lib Dems and Labour back in May, showing the breadth of Bristol’s support for inter-relating social justice and environmental issues.

And Corbyn’s most popular policies, such as rail nationalisation and his anti-austerity stance, are already long-standing Green positions. Hence at Bristol People’s Assembly’s recent ‘No 2 Austerity’ rally, the only Councillor on the panel was Green Anna McMullen.

This doesn’t mean Green victory is assured or easy. We have grown rapidly, and that brings as many challenges as it does outright benefits. But with the right manifesto, a slate of strong council candidates, and a favourable breeze, we are more likely to finish in the top two than George Ferguson.

At which point, supporters of the other parties should ask themselves; would they rather see Labour or the Greens in City Hall?

This blog was originally published here.