‘Labour Party should be worried about Bristol’s Brexit results’

I was very pleased to read Bristol24/7’s recent in-depth analysis of the Bristol EU referendum voting pattern, highlighting the divisions across the city.

However, some further analysis might have raised questions about the potential impact the voting might have on the political parties in any forthcoming city council election. It might also tell us something about Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.

The Labour Party official policy was for Remain and Jeremy Corbyn lead the party on that platform. Likewise, the Liberal Democrats and Greens both officially endorsed Remain, while UKIP was formally for Brexit.

The Conservatives, however, did not have a formal party policy and were clearly completely divided on the issue. So if you take the 10 electoral wards in which 50 per cent or more voted for Brexit then the voting pattern could have a significant impact on 15 Labour councillors and two Liberal Democratic councillors. This could open up new opportunities for both the Conservaties and UKIP to make gains.

In five of the ten wards (Southmead, St George Central, St George Trooper Hill, Filwood, Hartcliffe and Withywood), all the councillors are Labour. In Hengrove and Witchchurch Park both the two Liberal Democrats and one Labour councillor could be under threat, and in Avonmouth and Lawrence Weston the two Labour councillors and the one Labour councillor in Brislington might likewise be worried.

For the Conservatives, the impact is much harder to predict given that it had no party position and was heavily divided but has, since the referendum, both managed to transition to a new Prime Minister and are, on the surface, again united.

So the results are unlikely to make much difference in Henbury and Brentry or Stockwood where all councillors are Conservative and even less so in Avonmouth and Lawrence Weston or Brislington East where they hold one seat.

A similar analysis could be done by overlaying the city electoral wards onto the parliamentary constituencies.

Whilst Bristol can pride itself on voting decisively for Remain, the Bristol Labour Party should in fact be rather worried by the ward analysis results.

In addition, two things stand out in relation to Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of the Labour Party. The first is that he clearly failed to convince traditional white working class Labour voters in Bristol to support Labour Party policy in the referendum.

Second, although he seems to believe from his regular visits to the city that he has a strong support base here, the truth might be more complex. In fact his support is more likely to come from those voting Remain even though he was woeful in his capacity to persuade Labour voters of the Remain case and his personal commitment to Remain was at best lukewarm.

His Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, stated rather unhelpfully, but nevertheless perhaps truthfully, that Corbyn was in fact closer to the feelings of those voting Brexit.

The result of all this might be that his supporters will see him over the line in the leadership contest although he is not with them on Europe, while Labour Brexiteers on which the Party depends could move away from Labour in the forthcoming election, even though Corbyn might agree with them on Brexit.

Chris Miller is a former professor in Applied Social Studies at UWE. He lives in Southville.

Read more opinion pieces here.