Who will become the 2017 metro mayor?

Overview

Three of the four local authorities in the West of England have agreed to unlock a devolution deal that is worth nearly £1billion for the region. This investment is from central government and will not have to be repaid. Over the next thirty years the West of England will receive £30 million that can be invested into key infrastructure projects; housing, transport and initiatives to boost jobs and economic growth in this region. This deal truly represents, for the first time, devolution for this region and it will mean that the ability and power of local government will increase significantly. It was supported by the West of England Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) and the agreement was put out for public consultation.

The devolution deal has been on ongoing conversation with central government for a number of years but it was only ratified in the last few weeks. The deal was trumpeted by previous Mayor of Bristol George Ferguson, but in the city there were also concerns from the main parties about how power would be administrated. The deal presented from central government followed long-term negotiations between the four local authority leaders and DCLG.

The West of England comprises of Bristol, Bath and North East Somerset, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire. There was some reluctance from Bath and North East Somerset and South Gloucestershire to sign the deal as they believed it would be too Bristol-focused. Every local authority has voted for the devolution deal except North Somerset, who will not be part of it but will still be involved in the West of England Strategic Economic Plan and benefit from duel planning. There have been consistent concerns from North Somerset and the Councillors and MPs were not comfortable with the deal presented. This means they will not be part of the £30million per annum investment but this figure will not change and instead be shared amongst the three local authorities; Bristol, Bath and North East Somerset and South Gloucestershire.  

The most contentious part of the devolution deal has been the proposed introduction of a Metro Mayor. This has concerned members from all four local authorities, and was a major contributor in North Somerset pulling out. The Metro Mayor will set the strategic direction for combined projects across the three local authorities and work together with the leaders of Bristol, Bath and North East Somerset and South Gloucestershire. In spite of the economic strength of the West of England it has been late to the party. Many other areas have already achieved their first devolution deal and are working with central government to gain more devolved powers. It has been debated that the fiery politics and history of Avon was a contributor to delays in the West of England getting a devolution deal. This is now the deal that is on the table and in 2017 the deal will be unlocked and a Metro Mayor will stand for election, with an electorate consisting of Bristol, Bath and North East Somerset and South Gloucestershire.

What is a metro mayor?

In 2015, the former Chancellor George Osborne continued his pursuit of the devolution agenda and announced plans to introduce Metro Mayors into areas that had agreed to a devolution deal. The purpose of this role was to have an individual to chair combined authorities and set strategic direction for areas that had signed up to the deal. In the West of England, it is likely that this role would only require two days per week worth of work and following Birmingham’s lead command a salary of around £40,000 per annum. The individual will be elected across a large electorate, smaller than Police and Crime Commissioner candidates, but much larger than we have seen in the West of England in recent times. 

Who will win?

South Gloucestershire (40 Con, 16 Lib Dem, 14 Labour) and Bath and North East Somerset (36 Con, 2 Green, 5 Ind, 6 Lab, 15 Lib Dem, 1 No party) are majority controlled by the Conservative Party and Bristol is controlled by the Labour Party. The election will take place in 2017, when there will be no other elections, and turnout is likely to be significantly lower than the recent Bristol Mayoral election and 2015 General Election across the local authorities.

The best comparison would be the 2012 Bristol Mayor election where independent candidate, George Ferguson, was elected and benefitted from a low turnout. He was subsequently defeated in 2016 when Bristol Councillors (Lab 37, Con 14, Green 11, 8 Lib Dem) stood at the same time and this saw a rise in turnout and support for Labour. In Bath they recently held a referendum for a directly elected mayor and the public were overwhelmingly opposed to it. It is likely turnout here will be lower than it should be, because many members of public are not sold on the idea of a Metro Mayor. It was a result that better reflected the voting intentions of Bristol. 2017 will be similar to 2012 because there will be fewer voters turning out and it could benefit an independent, who some feel would be suited to the role of a combined authority mediator.  

Conservatives

The Conservative Party are the front runners and will benefit from a significant lead in the polls nationally. They gained the parliamentary seat of Bath when Ben Howlett was elected, quite surprisingly, as the Conservative MP in 2015. The Lib Dems were in second place and the former incumbent, Don Foster decided to not stand. The Conservatives also have control of the council here and it is likely that even with lower turnout they will benefit from a swing. In South Gloucestershire Chris Skidmore was first elected in 2010 but increased his majority in 2015 and it is likely that this area would also vote in support of the Conservative candidate for Metro Mayor. In Thornbury and Yate, which is in South Gloucestershire, Luke Hall defeated the Lib Dem MP Steve Webb in 2015.

South Gloucestershire has been controlled by the Conservatives since 2015. However, the Conservatives have considerably less power in Bristol. Charlotte Leslie is the MP for Bristol North West and was elected in 2010 defeating the Labour incumbent and convincingly beating the Lib Dem second placed candidate by 3,274 votes. In 2015, Labour came second, rather than the Lib Dems, and she increased her majority to 4,944. It is also worth mentioning Bristol East, which has been controlled by the Labour Party for 24 years. Kerry McCarthy is the incumbent MP but over recent years her majority has continued to reduce and in 2015 she secured victory with a 3,980 majority. It is important to look at the fact that combining the Conservative and UKIP vote would result in defeat for Kerry. There is also the national climate and the rise of the far left has left her very vulnerable. Some national polls are indicating that Bristol East would swing to the Conservatives if there was a General Election now; this is a factor that should be taken into account when considering the probable result of the 2017 Metro Mayor race. 

The West of England Combined Authority would be made up of two Conservative leaders and one Labour. It is certain that the two leaders for South Gloucestershire and Bath and North East Somerset would want a Conservative chairing the region. It has been suggested that Bath and North East Somerset leader Tim Warren could run for this role. It could also be an opportunity for Kingswood MP, and former PPS to George Osborne, Chris Skidmore to run as he is a moderate Conservative who has the experience of working under George Osborne when he was developing his devolution agenda.

Labour

Reports are suggesting growing unrest within the Labour Party both nationally and locally. Bristol is represented by a hugely popular mayor, Marvin Rees, but Kerry McCarthy and Thangam Debbonaire, representative for Bristol West, all face the potential of being deselected by the far left from within the Labour Party.

The Jeremy Corbyn factor is an important one in this Metro Mayor election. Bristol politicians are mostly opposed but local membership backs him for leader and it is almost certain he will still be the leader when the Metro Mayor election takes place. Bristol represents the largest proportion of Labour members out of the three local authorities and it will mean that Labour are likely to nominate a far left candidate. The national polls are suggesting that nationally there isn’t significant support for Jeremy Corbyn outside of the membership and this could seriously harm Labour’s chances of winning the Metro Mayor.

In South Gloucestershire they have strong representation and will pick up some support, but in Bath and North East Somerset it is much less likely they will make any real gains. The Bristol Mayoral Election in 2015 demonstrated how mobilised they can be and turnout in Bristol will probably be higher than anywhere else; this was highlighted by the Police and Crime Commissioner results in 2015, but due to Labour’s unpopularity nationally and the make-up of the other local authorities, it will not be enough to secure victory. Unless there is a strong independent, then Labour will finish a distant second from the Conservatives and receive much less of the vote in Bristol than in May. 

Liberal Democrats

The Labour Party are losing supporters nationally and the Lib Dems are making some minor gains at their expense. If it was six years ago then the Lib Dems would be considered slight favourites to win the Metro Mayor election with the Conservatives in second place. The Lib Dems were previously very strong in Bristol; they were the largest party at the council and Bristol West was represented by the Liberal Democrat and former Government Minister Stephen Williams. In South Gloucestershire they were also very powerful and second to the Conservatives, also holding Thornbury and Yate with Steve Webb. In Bath, they previously held control of the council and the city was represented by Don Foster.

Much has changed since then and nationally they only have 8 MPs and were wiped out in the South West. They are making a very slow recovery but this will not be enough to make significant gains in 2017. It could hurt Labour in Bristol though, where they will pick up some of the moderate Labour supporters, who do not want to back a far left (Corbyn) candidate. It is a possibility that Stephen Williams will stand and this would be even more damaging for Labour because he retains support in some parts of Bristol from his time as MP. Realistically, it will be a good result for them if they come third and a fantastic one if they can beat Labour into second. This is primarily dependent on what happens nationally with the Labour Party.  

Green Party

The Green Party have done very well in Bristol and it is where their membership is the second largest outside of Brighton. In Bristol West, where turnout is usually higher than the Bristol average in every election, they have considerable support. Darren Hall was the PPC for them in 2015 and came second to Labour with over 18,000 votes. Ordinarily, this may have been enough to secure victory but Labour secured a large turnout and managed to get over 20,000 votes and beat the Lib Dems.

In just over 12 months the political climate has changed in Bristol for the Greens and they have lost supporters to Labour because of Jeremy Corbyn. This has hurt the party. This Metro Mayor election will be less about securing that post but instead capitalising on Labour’s internal problems in Bristol and raising their profile for 2020. It is highly likely that the South West MEP Molly Scott Cato will stand as the Bristol West Green Party candidate.

She has significant profile and this Metro Mayor election campaign could be a chance for the Greens to galvanise Labour supporters who are unhappy with the way Labour politicians in Bristol have treated Corbyn, as much of the Green Party’s economic policy is aligned with Jeremy’s leadership. They suffered because of Corbyn in the Bristol Mayoral Election in 2015 when they lost councillors but over the last few months, public support for Labour has dropped and the Greens will be starting a fightback. They are not going to do well in South Gloucestershire and do not enjoy much support in support in Bath, where they hold two seats, so this campaign will be about reconnecting and gaining voters in Bristol. The Greens, if they put a strong candidate forward for Metro Mayor, could damage Labour as well. 

Independent

Sue Mountstevens has demonstrated that an independent candidate can win across multiple authorities as Police and Crime Commissioner. It is almost certain that there will be a high profile independent candidate running for this position. Sue has done an exceptional job at making clear that a Police and Crime Commissioner should be independent of party politics and an independent Metro Mayor candidate would have to do the same. They would have ammunition to do this because of the fact the role is a chairmanship and some may see the merits of an independent taking this role.

Sue Mountstevens‘ victory is significant because she has managed to secure two terms, even when turnout was higher, due to council elections, in her second election. This election in 2017 will not take place at the same time as any council elections which would benefit an independent, as it did for George Ferguson in 2012. However, he was comfortably defeated four years later when there was an all-out election. An independent candidate would need to have a substantial profile and secure support from the business community and other West of England leaders to mount a serious challenge.

If there is an independent candidate with the right profile and support matched by low turnout, then the Conservatives would have reason to be concerned. It is hard to make a definitive assessment of an independents chances until the candidate is announced, because this will be what shapes it. It is worth noting that every other area with a Metro Mayor does not have a high profile independent and it might be more difficult to sell as a non-political role, unlike Police and Crime Commissioner. The other factor working against them is running a multi-authority campaign which is much more difficult than working across one area because all of the political parties will already be mobilised in the three local authorities. 

Conclusion

The turnout for the metro mayor election is likely to be low; the public don’t really understand the function or powers of the metro mayor, they don’t want another tier of government either and are fatigued by what feels like an endless amount of elections and voting over the last couple of years.

On polling day, as ever, Conservative voters will turnout, not least due to the Conservatives highly effective campaign machine. This would suggest a Conservative metro mayor will be undeniable.

That said, a few foreseeable factors could potentially stop a Conservative metro mayor. If the West of England Labour selects a Corbynite candidate (Kyle Dudd perhaps?) this will alienate a whole swathe of moderate minded Labour voters and push them into the arms of the Liberal Democrats. Equally, if a well-known, respected Liberal Democrat candidate was selected (someone like Stephen Williams), this could lure all the voters the Liberal Democrats lost into 2015 back. This could create an impasse between the established parties.

Finally, a high-profile independent candidate would need to stand with the ability and resources to run a multi-authority campaign – no small feat. If there is an independent candidate with the right profile and support matched by low turnout, then the Conservatives could have reason to be concerned.

We watch the selections and running announcements with bated breath. But as things stand all signs point to a Conservative metro mayor in May 2017.

James Lancaster is a director at TFA, a leading Bristol political consultancy with other offices in Leeds, London and Reading

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